There’s No Crying in Fantasy

A Touch of the Downs at Jed York's Criminal Tools — Ty vs. Steven. Fleaflicker projects Steven ahead 130.02–128.20, a 1.82-point difference. Steven led last year's regular season with 1,981.90 points and finished 9–5. Ty finished 5–9, and their last meeting ended 194.20–96.40 in Steven's favor. The new season's first projection is considerably less lopsided.

Ty's top pick, Bucky Irving, goes straight into a lineup with Jalen Hurts, Breece Hall and Ja'Marr Chase. Steven brings back Jonathan Taylor and James Cook, plus Malik Nabers, Luther Burden and Brock Bowers. DeVonta Smith, taken eighth, joins that starting group. Both owners have a substantial retained core; the test for Ty is whether Irving and the rest of the new supporting cast can help him turn that into more wins.

The pick: Ty. At a projected gap under two points, there is room to prefer the Hurts–Chase combination without pretending last year's evidence has disappeared. This is the opening upset pick, although the numbers barely make it an upset.

ComeBacks at Arrowhead Avengers — Josh vs. Aaron. This one begins with a particularly watchable disagreement: Josh currently starts Drake Maye, and Aaron starts the Seattle defense against him tonight. Their fantasy matchup gets a direct confrontation before most of the league's players take the field.

The full-week projection is Aaron 125.71, Josh 121.48. Aaron's first pick, Derrick Henry, joins Kyren Williams and De'Von Achane in a starting group using three running backs. Josh is also using three: Kenneth Walker, Quinshon Judkins and first-round addition David Montgomery. Josh has CeeDee Lamb and Garrett Wilson at receiver; Aaron counters with Drake London and Emeka Egbuka.

The pick: Aaron. Henry's addition to Williams and Achane is the part of this matchup I like most. Maye can make that position uncomfortable immediately.

my Nabers are Mahomos at Bucket and Mops — Nicholas vs. Jeremy. Nicholas went 10–4 last regular season and reached the championship game. He opens this one with a projected 136.86–122.73 advantage, but Jeremy has won seven of their nine recorded meetings. The most recent one went the other way: Nicholas won 167.90–67.80 in Week 6 last year. That is enough history to make either owner selective about which part he brings up.

Nicholas retained Travis Etienne, Jaylen Waddle, George Pickens, Puka Nacua and Trey McBride. He filled in around that group with Joe Burrow at No. 9 and D'Andre Swift at No. 12; both are currently starting. Jeremy's counter is the receiver group of Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown, with Josh Allen at quarterback. There are several ways for that combination to erase a projection gap. Nicholas will want his running backs and McBride to supply the difference elsewhere.

The pick: Nicholas. The starting group has fewer obvious places where one position has to compensate for another. Jeremy gets his first response tonight through Brown.

Hit and Run at T-Law and Order — Evan vs. Ashton. Evan's 131.37–122.22 projected advantage meets an Ashton lineup already using No. 1 selection Jeremiyah Love alongside Ashton Jeanty. Zay Flowers, taken 20th, is starting at receiver with keeper Davante Adams. Ashton's first draft under the new rules is getting a fairly immediate trial.

Evan counters with Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey and Javonte Williams, plus drafted starters Rashee Rice and Cam Skattebo. He went 8–6 last regular season; Ashton finished 2–12. Evan also leads their recorded series 12–4. Those are reasons to make Evan the favorite, but the actual comparison now involves Love and a substantially rebuilt lineup, not a replay of those old scores.

The pick: Evan. Jackson and the retained running backs provide the more convincing starting point. For Ashton, getting useful opening-week production from Love would be encouraging even if the upset does not follow.

The NFL starts tonight with New England visiting Seattle in a Super Bowl LX rematch, kicking off at 7:20 p.m. Central. On the lineups saved this afternoon, six starting slots across four of our five matchups have a stake in the opener. Game details: Patriots preview.

Josh's Drake Maye against Aaron's Seattle defense is the cleanest head-to-head interest. Todd has Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the New England defense in the same game, so his ideal viewing experience involves a productive Seattle receiver without too much success for Seattle as a whole. Jeremy starts A.J. Brown against Nicholas, and Evan has kicker Jason Myers against Ashton. Tony's first opponent could therefore have a score on the board before Tony's own starters begin.

The clearest availability news concerns TreVeyon Henderson, whom Ashton drafted 21st and currently has on the bench. New England ruled him out with an ankle injury after he missed all three practices. The Patriots' reporting also notes that Rhamondre Stevenson had taken the lead-back role late last season and through the playoffs. That makes Stevenson's place on Ty's bench worth a fresh look before kickoff, without assuming Henderson's absence promises a particular number of touches. Source: Patriots injury analysis.

Ty currently has Breece Hall and Bucky Irving at running back, with Tetairoa McMillan in the flex. Stevenson is therefore a choice among actual alternatives, not an empty spot waiting to be filled. The decision comes tonight; the result will be much easier to argue about afterward.

On Steven's bench, Jadarian Price is another reason to watch even if the points do not count. Steven took him 13th. Seattle says Price will make his NFL game debut after sitting out the preseason, with George Holani and Emanuel Wilson also involved in the backfield. That supports watching how the work is divided, not assuming the rookie gets all of it. Source: Seahawks game preview.

This issue closes before the final inactive lists. The lineup descriptions are an afternoon snapshot; the first decisions lock tonight. Welcome back.